02 Yield Curve Reckoning: Why the Bond Market's Oldest Recession Signal Is Demanding Attention Again
The Treasury yield curve has spent an extended period in inverted territory, and professional investors who spent two years dismissing the signal are quietly reconsidering their position. As the relationship between short- and long-term rates evolves heading into 2025, the debate over what the curve is actually communicating — about recession risk, inflation persistence, and Federal Reserve credibility — has taken on renewed urgency.